Will McCain's pick of "dark-horse" running mate pay off?

Special Report:

U.S. presidential election

2008

Profile: Sarah Palin

By Yang Qingchuan

WASHINGTON, Aug. 29 (Chinese media) -- In picking their

running mates, U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama played it

very safe but his Republican opponent John McCain did it in a very different

way.

Beating all media and public expectations, McCain

made a bold decision to pick the 44-year-old and not-so-well-known female

governor of Alaska Sarah Palin as his running mate.

Republican presidential candidate

Senator John McCain (R-AZ) introduces his vice presidential running mate

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin at a campaign event in Dayton, Ohio August 29,

2008.(Chinese media/Reuters Photo)
Photo Gallery

Though it sounds very unconventional, it indeed seems

to be a strategy of what Ray Cost, a columnist for Politico, called "a risk

strategy out of well-thought calculation".

IT'S ALL ABOUT HILLARY

Opinion polls show that McCain and his Democratic

opponent Obama virtually run even among male voters.

But among women voters, McCain is lagging behind by

about 13 points at the present. That follows a historic pattern: In recent

decades, Democratic presidential candidates always enjoy a comfortable lead

against Republicans among female voters.

However, it is a little big different story this year

after Hillary Clinton, once aspiring to be the first female president of the

United States, beat by Obama in a fierce contest for the Democratic presidential

nomination.

Republican John McCain unveiled a major

surprise in the White House race Friday with his pick of first woman

governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin, seen here in February 2008, as his

running-mate.(Chinese media/AFP Photo)
Photo Gallery

Obama finally emerged as the winner, but it left

hostilities between his supporters and Clinton fans, including many middle-aged

and elder women.

The latest results of a Gallup poll shows that even

after Clinton and her husband, former president Bill Clinton, threw their

support behind Obama, about 21 percent of her supporters still said they haven't

made up their minds to support Obama or they will vote for McCain instead.

The McCain camp thus hopes they can use the sentiment

to make inroads into the Democratic base, especially women.

When she accepted McCain's offer at a rally in

Dayton, Ohio, Palin made an explicit appeal to Clinton's voters.

"Hillary left 18 million cracks in the highest,

hardest glass ceiling in America," she said, "but it turns out the women of

America aren't finished yet and we can shatter that glass ceiling once and for

all."

Analysts said although the majority of female

Democrats may not change their choice because of Palin, but in a close race, a

certain number of defectors will make the difference.

McCain, a moderate Republican, chose Palin also

because as a conservative, she can help him mend fences with the conservative

wing of the Republican Party.

"I predict any conservatives who have been lukewarm

thus far in their support of the McCain candidacy will work their hearts out

between now and November for the McCain-Palin ticket," says David Keene,

president of the American Conservative Union.

Another reason for McCain to pick Palin, brought up

in a middle-class family in Alaska, is that she can help him to connect with

white blue-collar voters better, especially in the so-called swing states like

Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

EMBRACING CHANGE

The biggest strength of Obama, analysts say, is that

he is seen as a "agent of change" in a time when 80 percent of the Americans say

their country is on a wrong track.

In the just-concluded Democratic National Convention,

Obama again made a pledge to change the country's direction, restoring

confidence at home and U.S. reputation abroad.

As the candidate for the ruling party, McCain faces

challenges to be seen as an "heir" to the unpopular sitting president, George W.

Bush.

NBC political analyst Chuck Todd said the choice of

Palin made it clear that McCain has realized he can't beat the trend of "change"

and must embrace it by choosing someone has a reputation of reformer like Palin.

As the governor of Alaska, Palin has confronted her

own party establishment to fight corruption and waste.

She has earned the reputation of a "reformer" and a

"clean" politician and enjoys an 80-percent support rate in her state.

John Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont

McKenna College, said, "the public stereotype of a Republican is a wrinkled old

guy taking cash under the table. One way for Republicans to break the stereotype

is with a female reformer."

Moreover, Palin's resume of having served as mayor,

chairwoman of Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission will bring executive

and economic management to the McCain camp.

None of McCain, Obama and his running mate Joe Bidden

-- all senators -- has the expertise in economy.

As voters list economic issues as their top concern

in this election, Palin will be a plus for McCain in this respect. Taking

account of McCain's age, who turns 72 Friday, the 44-year-old and sports-loving

Palin will help to "soften" the image contrast between McCain and 47-year-old

Obama.

HIGH RISK, HIGH REWARD

By choosing Palin, McCain successfully grabbed the

media's focus and diverted some of the attentions to Obama's epic speech

Thursday night.

Palin will also bring some new strength, but the fact

that she is a political novice at the national stage poses a very high risk.

Even Republicans were caught in surprise by the

choice of Palin.

Conservative commentator Pat Buchanan called it "the

biggest political gamble, I think, just about in American political history."

Moreover, Palin's lack of national politics

experience effectively undercuts one of McCain's major argument against Obama:

inexperience.

There's only 10 weeks to go before the general

election in November, and to train Palin into a good fighter at the national

stage is not a small feat.

The gap of experience in foreign policy and national

security affairs between Palin and her Democratic opponent Biden, who has served

in the Senate for over three decades and is currently the chairman of the Senate

Foreign Relations Committee, will be a big challenge.

The two will have a national televised debate on Oct.

2 and Palin will have to make her own case for the issues that she is not so

familiar with.

Analysts said McCain knows the risk of making such a

choice for running mate, but in a very bad year for the Republicans, he seems to

be convinced that if he does not take some risks, he may certainly lose the

whole race.