Thursday, February 26, 2009

News Analysis: Byplay over kidnapped Israeli soldier complicates Gaza truce talks

Special Report:

Palestine-IsraelConflicts



by Zhang Yanyang

JERUSALEM, Feb. 23 (Chinese media) -- Israel has made the release of its captured

soldier Gilad Shalit a vital condition to the lifting of the border blockade on

the Gaza Strip, while Hamas' counter demand might prove too high a price for the

Israeli government to accept.

"The crossings are open and will remain open to humanitarian aid, but

Israel's decision on any further widening would be dependent on the release of

Gilad Shalit," Israeli Prime Minister's Office spokesman Mark Regev told local

media last Wednesday.

Israeli Interior Minister Meir Sheetrit, a member of the powerful security

cabinet, also said last Wednesday on Israel Radio that "we need to know there's

an agreement in which Gilad returns home. That's a basic condition. If not, so

what, let Hamassuffer, we don't open the crossings."

Opening the border is a key demand Hamas raised in the Egypt-brokered truce

talks. The Islamist group insists that materials like steel and cement be

allowed into the enclave for reconstruction following Israel's 22-day massive

offensive that devastated much of Gaza's infrastructure.

However, Hamas refused to link Shalit, who was taken hostage by Palestinian

militants in a cross-border raid in 2006, with the ceasefire deal under

negotiation.

Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum has said that the movement does not object to

Shalit's release if Israel meets its demands on freeing Palestinian prisoners,

but he did not mention any connection between the Shalit issue and the truce.

"Both sides really want to end the case of Gilad Shalit. Both sides are

really desperate to come to a conclusion, but they are finding it very difficult

to climb down the tree," Khaled Abu Toameh, a Palestinian affairs analyst, told

Chinese media on Monday.

The release of prisoners who were directly involved in deadly attacks in

Israel is a highly controversial issue in the Jewish state. Yet Israel agreed in

the past to uneven prisoner swaps, exchanging large numbers of Arab prisoners

for its captured soldiers or their bodies.

Israel's outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert "has a strong interest in

being the prime minister that was responsible for releasing him (Shalit) before

he leaves office," added the analyst.

The security cabinet said it would make up a list of names of prisoners to

be freed in exchange for Shalit, but it is unclear whether the list will match

Hamas'.

Furthermore, Israel might only release around 1,000 prisoners, which might

fall short of Hamas' demands.

"It is not really clear how many prisoners Hamas wants to be released.

There are conflicting reports of ranging from 1,000 to 1,500. That is why they

haven't made it official," Abu Toameh said.

"Hamas wants to show some sort of achievement. The release of 1,000

prisoners would be seen as an achievement by Hamas, and in the wake of the war

they need to show some kind of political achievement," he added.

Even after Israel and Hamas agree on the number and identities of prisoners

to be released, they would also have to come to an agreement on their eventual

place of delivery. Israel wants them to be cast out of the Palestinian

territories, but Hamas would want them to return to their homes.

Abu Toameh noted that once Israel agrees to release the prisoners, Hamas

would probably agree to deport at least some of the prisoners to Lebanon or

Syria. Senior Hamas official Mahmoud al-Zahar has said that they would not have

a problem if some of them were send abroad.

"If you are sitting in an Israeli jail, knowing that you killed60 Israelis

and that you will probably never see the light of day again, being deported so

you can celebrate victory abroad is not such a bad option," Abu Toameh said.

He noted that the suggested prisoner exchange would be the only way for

Israel to retrieve Shalit. "All other attempts to release him have failed. I see

no other way," Abu Toameh said.

Considering that Israel uses the Shalit issue "as an excuse not to open the

border crossings," he said that the issue "has become a burden to Hamas" and

that "the ball was really in Israel's hands."

The bargaining over Israel's lately proposed compulsory condition is all

but certain to darken the prospect of Egypt's mediation efforts for a long-term

truce between Israel and Hamas.

In an ill-boding sign, Olmert on Monday suspended senior defense official

Amos Gilad, who had served as the government's top envoy in the Egypt-mediated

truce talks, following reports that Gilad criticized Olmert for jeopardizing the

truce talks by linking Shalit's release with easing the Gaza blockade.

According to Gilad, the government's incoherent approach to the

negotiations was insulting to the Egyptians and might prove counterproductive in

its attempts to establish a long-term truce.

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