What fuels fresh political crisis in Ukraine

KIEV, Sept. 4 (Chinese media) -- Ukraine's governing coalition is on the brink of

collapse after the pro-presidential "Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defense" party

staged a walkout Tuesday.

President Viktor Yushchenko has threatened to dismiss parliament and call a

snap election if a new governing coalition cannot be created in time.

The recent exchange of words and actions have plunged the country into yet

more political turmoil, in what analysts believe the struggle for power between

Yushchenko and Prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko is the root cause.

In last September's parliamentary elections, Yushchenko's bloc and Our

Ukraine-People's Self-Defense party won 227 seats altogether in the 450-member

parliament and formed a governing coalition led by Tymoshenko.

Yushchenko and Tymoshenko have since been engaged in a tug-of-war for

power.

As the date draws near for the 2010 presidential election, in which the two

rivals are likely to face off, the power struggle has reached boiling point,

analysts say.

On Tuesday, the legislature passed amendments to the law on the cabinet of

ministers and a series of bills that would weaken the power of the president.

The "Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defense" party accused Tymoshenko's bloc of

colluding with the opposition Party of Regions during the votes and pulled out

of the ruling coalition after an extraordinary meeting.

Yushchenko also described the move as a bid to establish a "dictatorship of

the prime minister," saying "a political and constitutional coup d'etat has

started in the parliament."

Rebuking Yushchenko's accusations, Tymoshenko said Wednesday the real

reason the president "declared a war against me is to ensure his victory in the

next presidential elections."

Another factor contributing to the outbreak of this political crisis is

that the foundations of the ruling coalition are not firm.

Tymoshenko's coalition lost its slim majority after two legislators pulled

out last month, which reduced the strength of the coalition and brought its

legitimacy into question, analysts say.

The opposition insisted that the pullout of the two lawmakers signified a

breakup of the coalition and called on the government to resign.

Directed by their individual interests, major political factions are

unlikely to compromise easily and a fast settlement of the crisis is no easy

job, analysts say, listing three possible solutions.

One possibility is that members of the ruling coalition can bridge their

differences through consultations to patch up the coalition.

Tymoshenko has urged the pro-presidential party to come back to the

governing coalition and seek an end to the political crisis through

negotiations.

However, analysts say the recent fierce exchange of accusations exert slim

hope on this solution.

Another possibility is that a new ruling coalition is formed.

Under Ukrainian law, a parliament has 30 days to form a new coalition after

one is dissolved, otherwise it is at risk of being dismissed by the president.

Analysts predict that Tymoshenko's block and the Party of Regions will play

a dominant role in a new coalition.

The third possibility is that Yushchenko dissolves the parliament and calls

a fresh election.

Ukraine has held two parliamentary elections in three years since the

"Orange Revolution" in 2004, but stability in the country has not been restored

after the elections.

Analysts say that unless amendments to the electoral laws are made, the

strength of political factions would not change in the elections and the

political turmoil is likely to continue.