Special Report: Iran Nuclear Crisis
by Yu Zhixiao
Latest incidents concerning the defiant Persian Gulf country on the one hand, and the United States and Israel on the other, have only helped confuse matters further.
Among the few positive signs emerging from the renewed crisis was Iran's announcement Friday that its top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana would hold talks on ending the nuclear standoff on July 19 in Geneva.
Again, on July 4, the Iranian ambassador in Brussels handed over a letter to Russia, China, France, Britain, the United States and Germany, containing his country's response to their latest package of incentives aimed at ending the five-year nuclear dilemma.
The contents of the letter were not revealed, but Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said his country had reviewed the package from a "constructive" standpoint.
However, these positive signs have been overshadowed by recent military muscle-flexing carried out by both Iran and its arch foe Israel.
On Wednesday and Thursday, Iran test-fired several missiles including a Shahab-3, which has a range of 2000 km, putting Israel and U.S. military bases in the Middle East within striking distance.
On Thursday, Israel put its latest spy plane on display, in what defense officials said was a show of strength in answer to Iran's war games.
"The risk of potential conflict in the region is increasing, but I don't think war is imminent between Iran and Israel or the United States," Yu Wanli, an associate professor at the School of International Studies in China's prestigious Peking University, told Chinese media.
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Thursday that his country has "proved in the past that it won't hesitate to act when its vital security interests are at stake."
Israel launched an air strike on an unfinished Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's response to Iran's missile tests was equally tough. "We take very, very strongly our obligation to help our allies defend themselves, and no one should be confused about that," she said.
Commenting on the recent development, Professor Yu said "the possibility can't be ruled out that Israel will carry out a preemptive attack against Iran's nuclear facilities when it finds Iran is about to succeed in developing an atomic weapon, but until now there is no evidence to show that Iran will own the capacity very soon."
Neither Iran nor Israel and the United States want to see a war in the region, which might be a disaster for all sides concerned, said Yu.
The United States understands that a war with Iran will probably spiral out of control and endanger its military bases in Iraq and the whole of the Middle East, he added.
History also shows that the intense atmosphere caused by the Iranian nuclear issue does not necessarily spell war. For example, Iran carried out two missile tests in 2006, which created regional tension but did not lead to war.
However, recent "constructive" elements in the nuclear issue claimed by Iranian officials do not mean a breakthrough in the impasse is imminent either, observers say.
"Iran has not closed the door for negotiations with the international community and the International Atomic Energy Agency, which Iran may only use as stalling tactics for its own purpose," explained Yu.
It is difficult for Iran and the world's major powers to reach an agreement soon, he added.
Iran does not trust the United States and hold that the U.S. goal is to change the regime in the Middle Eastern country besides preventing it developing nuclear weapons, said Yu.
"The situation in the region will maintain some extent of tension in the near future, but will not go as far as degenerating into a war," he added.
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