New U.S. president likely to focus more on Afghanistan

by Yang Qingchuan

WASHINGTON, July 15 (Chinese media) -- Whoever succeeds George W. Bush next January as the new U.S. president, be it Democratic candidate Barack Obama or his Republican rival John McCain, the new leader will likely focus more on Afghanistan in his overall war strategy as the candidates' recent speeches indicate.

CONVERGENCE ON AFGHANISTAN

Although Obama and McCain clash sharply on how to handle the war in Iraq, they appear to converge on the need to shift the focus to Afghanistan.

In a major foreign policy speech delivered in Washington on Tuesday, Obama called for a "new direction" in international relations and a change in focus from Iraq to fighting terrorism in Afghanistan.

Earlier, in an op-ed published in Monday's The New York Times, Obama said he would send at least two more combat brigades, which means about 7,000 more troops, to Afghanistan if he won the presidential race.

"We need more troops, more helicopters, better intelligence-gathering and more non-military assistance to accomplish the mission there," he wrote.

McCain, speaking in Albuquerque in the state of New Mexico, said things were getting worse in Afghanistan and called for a "comprehensive strategy for victory" there.

He proposed sending three additional combat brigades to Afghanistan, on the condition that it should not interfere with the pursuit of victory in Iraq.

It was noteworthy, though, that they stressed the importance of Afghanistan from different perspectives.

While Obama said the shift of focus was meant to redeem the Bush administration's failure in Iraq, McCain claimed the U.S. military can copy its recent "success" in Iraq to Afghanistan.

CALL FOR MORE TROOPS IN AFGHANISTAN

In fact, there have been repeated calls within the United States for more U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

U.S. commanders in Afghanistan have long been asking for additional troops, as many as 10,000 more than the roughly 32,000 soldiers there at present.

Michael Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a recent interview with USA Today that three U.S. brigades of about 3,500 troops each are needed to bolster the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan.

"We don't have enough troops there, and we need to get troops in there to really meet the combat needs," he said.

A new ABC-Washington Post poll released Tuesday showed that 51 percent of the respondents believed the war in Afghanistan was unsuccessful, up from 24 percent in 2002.

In the broader "war on terror," most surveyed said that Afghanistan should be more important in terms of the larger terror-fighting effort than the Iraq war.

The poll also found that a 51-percent majority believed the United States must win in Afghanistan for the sake of success in the war on terror.

Such calls were apparently driven by the recent spike in violence in Afghanistan.

Increased U.S. bombing in Afghanistan has failed to ease Taliban attacks and many U.S. experts agree that air strikes alone cannot stop the Taliban and that more ground troops are needed.

U.S.-led coalition warplanes dropped 1,853 bombs and missiles in Afghanistan through June 2008, a 40-percent increase from the same period in 2007.

However, attacks launched by the Taliban have risen 40 percent this year in eastern Afghanistan, where many recent U.S. air strikes have occurred.

In June alone, 28 U.S. troops died in Afghanistan. That was the highest monthly total since the war began in October 2001.

TALE OF TWO WARS

The quantity of additional resources the United States can pour into Afghanistan depends on developments in Iraq, given the limited manpower of the U.S. military.

The Bush administration said if the situation in Iraq continues to improve, it can free up more troops for Afghanistan.

"We have clearly seen an increase in violence in Afghanistan. At the same time, we've seen a reduction in violence and casualties in Iraq. And I think it's just part of our commitment to ensure that we have the resources available to be successful in Afghanistan over the long haul," U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said recently.

The New York Times estimates that by the time Bush leaves office on Jan. 20 next year, at least one and as many as three of the 15 combat brigades now in Iraq could be withdrawn or at least scheduled for withdrawal, making more troops available for Afghanistan.

How quickly the U.S. military can shift focus to Afghanistan also depends on the outcome of this year's presidential election.

Obama has reaffirmed that he will pull all combat brigades out of Iraq by mid-2010.

McCain, remaining uncommitted to a timetable, predicted that the United States will eventually "win" the Iraq war in 2013 and pave the way for a withdrawal.