China's think-tank needs to go global

BEIJING, April 21 -- It looms clear that the
currently downward economic situation is also challenging the think tank system
in China. In recent days, hence, many have been expecting China's think tanks to
kick off a radical change. A top level think tank, established last month
following the instructions of Premier Wen Jiabao, is believed to be a pioneer
for think tanks' transformation in China.

In contrast to those think tanks affiliated to
government departments, the newly formed China Centre for International Economic
Exchanges (CCIEE) is a semi-official think tank, now the highest level of the
kind in China. Many members of the centre are retired senior official, and
former Vice Premier, Zeng Peiyan, serves as its Director. Inspired by some
foreign examples-- American politicians Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski
both had the experience of working in think tanks before and after they worked
as senior officials in the White House, China is prepared to take advantage of
the special status of these retired officials, which can help them more easily
approach public issues. Moreover, their political experience enables them to
understand the particular requirements of policy makers.

However, the status quo of China's think tanks,
estimated 2,000 in number by the News Weekly "Outlook", is far from satisfactory
in both its professional competence and international clout. That explains why,
of all the 2,000 research institutes known as think tanks across the nation,
only 74 has reached the international criteria and gained acknowledgement. Many
think tanks have even incurred public criticism in recent years for their
improper comments and predictions about social and economic situations.

For instance, last July, when the oil prices hit a
record high of 147 U.S. dollarsa barrel, some think tanks in China said it
would reach 200 U.S. dollars soon. Five months later, these experts were put to
shame when prices plunged to 35 U.S. dollars a barrel.

In the period of "travel rush" during Spring
Festival, an expert from a famous think tank set up a huge wave of public rage
when he released his remarks on media saying "the only way out to settle the
problems related to "travel rush" during holidays is to highly drive up the
traffic fares." Besides, many more so-called think tanks would rather wait until
problems pile up before *** a reckoning, that would be sort of "firing
belated shots."

It is obvious that those think tanks make wrong
judgments not really due to their lack of professional competence, but actually
because some of them are so closely connected with "interest groups." Experts
from think tanks affiliated to government agencies have to make sure their
remarks are in line with the interests of the department in question. Trapped in
such a bottle neck, China's think tank system is in the urgent need to make a
breakthrough, and the establishment of semi-official or independent think tanks
is deemed by many analysts what China literally needs at the time.

Especially at the juncture when China is increasingly
integrated into the international community and comes to be known as a centre
player on the world stage, it seems more desirable than ever for the country to
possess a more advanced think tank system commensurate with its enhanced
political and economic clout. Perhaps, it would be advisable for china to draw
on the experience of others in building the internationalized think tank system,
say, the U.S. has made a name as the "paradise of think tanks" to the world and
its experience can be taken for reference.

Also in history, the U.S. think tanks, playing a
critical role in helping politicians make policies and work out strategies, had
turned out many success stories and even legends. In 1950s, on the Eve of the
Korean War, the U.S. government as well as military held identical views
predicting that China would not send its troops to the battle front. But the
famous think tank Research and Development (RAND) published its report, which
was then quite opposite to the official prediction but later proved correct by
history-- China entered the War on a full scale.

A recent case concerns North Korea's most debated
rocket launch. Many think tanks in the Western world had been vying for time to
release their latest findings before and during the event, information ranging
from detailed research reports, both the speed and depth of satellite
photographs, and foresight about potential impacts of the event upon
policy-*** of the nations all across the globe. Voice of China's think tanks
large and small, nevertheless, was not in the least heard in the international
community. This is ill-matched with China's international status as a crucial
leverage in the Six-Party Talks.

China is emerging as a weight-carrying power, and
therefore, in the process of enhancing its national strength and lifting its
international influence, an internationalized think tank system featuring global
credibility and significance will prove to be more or less indispensible.

(Source: People's Daily Online)