Special report: Palestine-IsraelConflicts
by Xu Gang
JERUSALEM, Jan. 1 (Chinese media) -- As the Israel Defense
Forces (IDF)operation in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip continued on Thursday,
Israel is now facing the primary problem of finding an exit strategy for the
operation, an expert said.
The operation, dubbed Cast Lead, entered its sixth
day on Thursday. According to Palestinian sources, the offensive beginning
Saturday has so far killed over 400 people and injured over 2,000 others.
Hamas, the Gaza ruler, has sustained significant
damage, and its operatives have hidden out in hospitals and mosques, said
Israel's Shin Bet security agency on Wednesday, noting that "Hamas has been
attacked like it has never been attacked before."
Israeli soliders look into northern Gaza
atop a tank in southern Israel bordering the Gaza Strip, Jan. 1, 2009.
Soldiers spent their new year waiting for orders of possible ground
offensive into Gaza Strip. (Chinese media/Yin Bogu)
Photo Gallery
"As is common in these situations, Israel's primary
problem is finding an exit strategy," said Shlomo Brom, a senior research fellow
of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.
"That is, how are the achievements of the military
campaign translated into the desired results. Such a strategy impacts on the
length of the campaign and the additional steps that may be taken," said Brom.
According to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, the
goals of the operation are "to fundamentally improve the security situationin
the southern part of the country."
In Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak's terms, the
objectives are "to change the situation from the foundation and ensure that
there will be no more fire or other hostile activity coming from Gaza."
Wider objectives -- such as toppling the Hamas regime
or conquering Gaza -- were not presented, noted Brom.
This suggests that the method of operation has been
chosen to exact a toll of Hamas and weaken it in order to create a new balance
of deterrence between Israel and Hamas, assuming that Hamas will exercise more
restraint in initiating attacks against Israel once it grasps the steep price it
will have to pay and its limited ability to cope with the Israeli response, he
said.
"In other words, Israel is striving for a new, stable
and long lasting ceasefire with a weakened Hamas under terms that reflect the
change in the balance of power. Among the new conditions would be a ban on Hamas
activity near the border with Israel and limiting, to the extent possible, the
smuggling of arms into Gaza," explained the expert.
An Israeli military helicopter flies
over the northern Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2009. Israeli warplanes continued
airstrikes Thursday on the Gaza Strip for the sixth day, leaving 410
Palestinians dead and nearly 2,000 others wounded. (Chinese media/Yin
Bogu)
Photo Gallery
"For Hamas, it will do what it can to prevent this
outcome. It would seem that its basic objective is also a new ceasefire, but on
its own terms, i.e., with no limits on its ability to operate in the Gaza Strip
area and along the Egyptian border, and with crossings to Egypt and Israel that
are open regularly," he said.
According to the expert, Hamas' primary available
tool is continued harassment of Israel, and the main component of Hamas'
response is its continued ability to launch rockets and mortars of a long enough
range to disrupt the daily routine of many Israelis.
On Thursday, Gaza militants continued its retaliatory
barrage, firing rockets and mortar shells at southern Israel with a range of up
to 40 kilometers. Since Saturday, the fire has caused four deaths and over a
dozen injuries on the Israeli side.
However, the main problem of Hamas is that the IDF
has successfully struck a significant part of Hamas' capabilities and to a
considerable extent suppressed its ability to deploy the forces left at its
disposal, said Brom.
"Therefore, Hamas is likely to try to rehabilitate
its ability to deploy its forces, ideally with reduced exposure to IDF deterrent
capabilities, and at the same time resort to other means of attack," he said.
Though Israel is mulling an exit strategy for its
Gaza operation, and Hamas appears to be willing to accept a new ceasefire based
on its own terms, it is by no means an easy job for the two sides to reach a new
truce in the near future.
There are two possible mechanisms for Israel to
attain its goals, said Brom.
The first is striving for an agreement or
understandings with Hamas about a ceasefire under new terms through mediators
from the Arab world and beyond who would be able to negotiate with both sides,
he said, adding that the advantage of an agreement or understandings is the
ability to create a more stable ceasefire than before.
The second mechanism is a unilateral ceasefire on the
part of both sides, under terms in which the price of transgressing the
ceasefire terms would be made very clear to Hamas.
This would require no agreement or formal
understandings, but such a ceasefire is less stable because the two sides may
offer different interpretations of what is allowed and what is not, without
there being any sort of mechanism to handle problems that arise, Brom warned.
Above all, it is necessary to find mediators who can
examine the different options and help end the fighting so that Israel's
strategic objectives of the operation will be realized based on the military
moves that serve these objectives, noted the expert.
In Brom's opinion, as soon as the goals are attained,
Israeli leaders would prefer to end the fighting.
On Thursday, Olmert said during a tour to the
rocket-battered southern city of Beersheba that Israel has no interest in
extending the ongoing offensive in Gaza.
"We have no interest in waging a prolonged war ... We
are also not eager to wage a war on a wide front," he said.
The premier reiterated that Israel does not mean to
harm Gaza civilians but to strike Hamas with "an iron fist," saying that he was
hopeful that the goals of the operation would be attained quickly.
Commenting on a possible ceasefire with Hamas, Olmert
said that he is interested in establishing an international supervision and
enforcement mechanism for any Gaza truce, which he has reportedly made a
precondition of any such deal.
"If the conditions mature and we think they offer a
solution that ensures a better security situation for southern Israel, then we
will consider the matter. But we aren't there yet," said Olmert on Wednesday.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy says
goodbye to Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni after a meeting at the
Elysee Palace in Paris,Jan.1,2009.Livni repeats her government's rejection
of a ceasefire with militants in the Gaza Strip while speaking to
reporters after the meeting. (Chinese media/Zhang Yuwei)
Photo
Gallery
Israel rejects calls for immediate
ceasefire in Gaza
PARIS, Jan. 1 (Chinese media) -- Visiting Israeli Foreign Minister
Tzipi Livni rejected here on Thursday calls for an immediate ceasefire with
Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
After meeting with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and French
Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, Livni said: "There is no humanitarian crisis
in the Gaza Strip, and therefore there is no need for a humanitarian truce,"
rejecting French proposal for a 48-hour truce to allow humanitarian aid in Gaza.
Full story
Palestinian official: Israeli
offensive so far leaves 400 dead, 2,000 wounded
GAZA, Jan. 1 (Chinese media) -- The Israeli attacks on the Gaza
Strip continued on Thursday for the sixth day in a row, with warplanes striking
at more targets in the Hamas-controlled territory.
Mu'awia Hassanien, a Palestinian health emergency
official, said the offensive had so far killed 400 Palestinians and left 2,000
wounded. Full story
Poll: most Israeli favor continuing
Gaza offensive without ground operation
JERUSALEM, Jan. 1 (Chinese media) -- A majority of Israelis are
in favor of continuing the ongoing airstrikes on the Gaza Strip without
launching a ground maneuver that might endanger Israeli soldiers, found a poll
released Thursday.
Results of the survey, conducted by local daily Ha'aretz
and polling company Dialog, showed that 52 percent of the respondents stand
behind the Israeli army in its aerial assaults against the Gaza-ruling Hamas
movement.Full story
Palestinian rocket-fire into Israel
goes on despite raids
GAZA, Jan. 1 (Chinese media) -- Palestinian militants on Thursday
continued firing rockets into Israel despite constant Israeli bombing of the
Gaza Strip.
Ezz el-Deen al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of
Islamic Hamas movement, claimed responsibility for launching tens of rockets
into Israel since Thursday morning, including Soviet-made Grad missiles. Full story
China calls for immediate cease-fire
in Gaza
BEIJING, Dec. 30 (Chinese media) -- China is deeply concerned at
the current situation in Gaza,and hopes parties involved could immediately halt
the armed conflict, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said here on
Tuesday.
China is deeply concerned over the ongoing armed
conflict in Gaza, Qin said at a regular press conference. Full story
UN chief: Continued violence in and
around Gaza "unacceptable"
UNITED NATIONS, Dec. 29 (Chinese media) -- UN Chief Ban Ki-moon
said on Monday that he was deeply alarmed by the current escalation of violence
in and around Gaza, and that such continued violence is "unacceptable." Full story
U.S. insists on "durable, sustainable"
ceasefire between Hamas and Israel
WASHINGTON, Dec. 30 (Chinese media) -- The United States on
Tuesday reiterated its call for a "durable and sustainable" ceasefire between
Israel and Hamas militants ruling the Gaza Strip.
"The ceasefire, in order to be productive, has to be
maintained," State Department spokesman Gordon Duguid told reporters. "It can't
be a ceasefire in which one side uses it to launch periodic
attacks." Full story
More related stories
Israeli army denies report of plan to
propose 48-hour Gaza truce
An Israeli soldier stands on the hood of
a military vehicle near the border with the Gaza Strip Dec. 28, 2008.
(Chinese media/Reuters Photo)
Photo
Gallery
JERUSALEM, Dec. 30 (Chinese media) -- Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Tuesday denied a report that the Israeli defense establishment will recommend a
48-hour truce with Hamas.
"The report is not true, our plan is to continue the
Gaza operation," an IDF spokeswoman told Chinese media on the phone. Full story
Israel pounds Gaza for 4th day,
rejecting truce appeals
JERUSALEM, Dec. 30 (Chinese media) -- Israel on Tuesday rejected
worldwide appeals for a truce as its air strikes on the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip
went on for a fourth day.
The operation, dubbed Cast Lead, continued early
Tuesday, with at least 10 people killed and 40 others wounded when Israeli war
planes bombed a series of Gaza targets, according to Palestinian reports.
Full story
Hamas leader says ready for new
ceasefire
GAZA, Dec. 23 (Chinese media) -- A senior Hamas leader on Tuesday
said his movement can abide by ceasefire with Israel if the Jewish state
respected the terms of the previous agreement.
Mahmoud Zahar, a Hamas leader based in Gaza, made the
remarks a few days after an Egyptian-brokered ceasefire expired. Full story
Durable peace deal between Israel,
Hamas unlikely
JERUSALEM, Dec. 22 (Chinese media) -- After Hamas ended a
six-month-old Egyptian-brokered ceasefire with Israel, analysts believe a
durable peace agreement between the Palestinian Islamic movement and the Jewish
state is unlikely, as it would go against Hamas' ideology and undermine Israel's
long-term security objectives.
Hamas spokesman in the Gaza Strip Fawzi Barhom said in a
statement on Thursday that "there is no room to extend the Tahde'a (truce) with
Israel, which ends on Friday," blaming Israel for "bearing the full
responsibility for its collapse." Full story
Hamas to form referential council to
back its Gaza gov't
GAZA, Dec. 22
(Chinese media) -- Islamic Hamas movement intends to form a national referential
committee to back its Gaza deposed government and its Premier Ismail Haneya, a
senior Hamas official said on Monday.
Khalil al-Hayyah revealed to reporters that his
movement had recently held contacts and consultations with leaders of other
factions and political groups to form the committee to back the government in
times of crisis. Full story
Hamas warns of suicide bombings inside
Israel likely if Gaza attacked
GAZA, Dec. 22 (Chinese media) -- Islamic Hamas movement on
Monday saidit doesn't rule out resorting to suicide bombings inside Israel if
the Jewish state escalated military operations in the Gaza Strip it controls.
"The Palestinian resistance has the right to use
every available means to defend the people in the face of the Israeli
aggression, including martyrdom operations," said Ayman Taha, a Hamas spokesman
in Gaza. Full story
Israeli defense minister: Ongoing
rocket fire unacceptable
JERUSALEM, Dec. 22 (Chinese media) -- Israeli Defense
Minister Ehud Barak said Monday that Israel will not accept the ongoing rocket
fire from the Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip.
His remarks came four days after the expiration of
the six-month ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Palestinian groups in
Gaza, who announced they would not be renewing the truce. Full story
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