By Zhang Yanyang
JERUSALEM, June 19 (Chinese media) -- Some analysts view the temporary truce between Israel and Hamas as a special opportunity while others consider it a stopgap measure for both sides as it is unlikely to halt a collision course.nbsp;
SUCCESS FOR THE STATUS QUO
The "tahadiyeh" (Arabic for temporary truce) proposed
by Egyptian mediators to end rocket and mortar attacks on Israel and Israeli
raids and air strikes in the coastal enclave went into effect at 6 a.m. local
time (0300 GMT) on Thursday.
"It's a complicated issue ... from an Israeli
perspective anytime that a Palestinian group or Arab country stops violence is a
success for the status quo, not an Israeli victory," Professor Gerald Steinberg,
Political Studies Department Chair at Bar Ilan University, told Chinese media.
"The longer the ceasefire lasts, the more it will be
seen as an Israeli victory," he said in an interview with Chinese media.
He noted that a ceasefire with Hamas might follow a
similar course of the one reached with the Palestinian Liberation Organization
(PLO). "After 30 years even Yasser Arafat had to change his tactics," he said.
In addition, even a partial lifting of economic
sanctions might give Gaza's 1.5 million inhabitants a taste of normalcy making
it harder to reimpose war conditions, Steinberg said. "The question is to what
extent will people in Gaza be willing to give up normal living conditions."
However, some other analysts agreed that the
temporary truce is unlikely to halt a collision course and could derail progress
made under the Road Map plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
WIN-WIN BUT
FRAGILE
Analysts said that both Israel and Hamas regarded the
truce as a necessary step because Israel seeks to avoid a broad military
operation which may lead to massive casualties in the densely-populated Gaza
Strip, and Hamas needs time to recuperate its forces.
"It is difficult to predict the duration of this
ceasefire. Hamas needs the time to build up its military capabilities, and when
it feels that it no longer requires the ceasefire and that its military build-up
is sufficient, it is likely to violate it," Dore Gold, President of the
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, told Chinese media.
He noted Hamas' careful choice of words, "tahadiyeh",
not "hudna", which would infer a longer armistice. "Just the very choice of
words indicates that Hamas has no intention of meeting the Quartet conditions,"
Gold said in an interview with Chinese media.
In 2006, the Quartet peacemakers, which consist of
the UN, the European Union, the United States and Russia, established three
preconditions to normalize relations with Hamas: disarming, recognizing Israel
and rejecting violence as part of its organization's charter.
Under the truce deal an Israeli blockade imposed on
its borders with Gaza would also be loosened gradually and partially.
Starting next week, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
would allow an initial increase of 30 percent of foodstuffs and basic
commodities to the Gaza Strip, a military spokesman told the media.
Meanwhile Washington is hopeful that the current
truce might allow Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President
Mahmoud Abbas to refocus their efforts to reaching a framework peace deal by the
end of the year.
But both Israelis and Palestinians lack confidence in
the longevity of the ceasefire. The last ceasefire reached in Gaza in November
2006 fell apart quickly.
"We have no illusion but that this truce is fragile
and could be short-lived. Hamas has not changed its skin," Israeli Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert said at a conference north of Tel Aviv on Wednesday.
Hamas leader Ismail Haneya has said it expects all
Palestinian factions to respect the ceasefire out of a sense of national
responsibility.
But Abu Hamza, a spokesman for the armed wing of
Islamic Jihad (Holy War) movement has told the media that they would respond
with force from Gaza to any Israeli raids in the West Bank, despite the fact
that the area is not covered by the truce.
ENHANCED LEGITIMACY FOR
HAMAS
There should be no doubt about Israel's intentions
regarding Hamas. "Hamas is not a partner for us ... we did not change our mind
regarding our views on Hamas," said Aryeh Merkel, a spokesperson of Israeli
Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
"We negotiate with Mahmoud Abbas and it is quite
clear that even if we reach an agreement it will not be implemented as long as
Hamas remains in control of Gaza," he said.
Though Israel might not view Hamas as a potential
partner for peace, some analysts believe the Jewish state's very agreement to a
peace treaty, however short it may be, helps enhance the militant group's
credibility abroad.
"One of the unanticipated side effects of
negotiations is that they lead to the enhanced legitimacy of those who engage in
it," Gold said, noting that Hamas might improve its standing to make it harder
for Israel to argue against it internationally.
In such a case of enhanced legitimacy for Hamas and
without the Quartet conditions being met, "the tahadiyeh is likely to accelerate
the consolidation of Fatah and Hamas and to undermine the very purpose of the
Annapolis agreement aimed at supporting the government of Mahmoud Abbas," Gold
said.
Special report:
Palestine-Israel
Relations
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