2009: A crucial year for war-torn Iraq

Special report: Tension escalates in

Iraq

by Gao Shan and Fu Yiming

BAGHDAD, Jan. 1 (Chinese media) -- With the beginning of

2009 and the U.S.-Iraq Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) on the U.S. military

presence going into effect on the New Year's day, the war-torn Iraq faces a

crucial year for the reviving of the country.

A series of votes in Iraq this year will re-configure

the nation's political map, including the provincial elections on Jan.31, a

national referendum on the U.S.-Iraq security pact in July and the nationwide

parliamentary elections at the end of the year.

　　PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS IN JANUARY

The provincial elections will be the first major poll

in Iraq since 2005. The elections will bring new blood into local governing

bodies and will serve as a dry run for the nationwide parliamentary elections in

December.

More than 400 parties have been registered and more

than 14,500candidates will race for 440 open seats on provincial councils.

"Iraq will witness a dramatic political change during

the provincial elections, because many politicians and parties which had not

participate in the past elections will join race for the seats this time," said

Dr. Sabah N Noori al-Shiek, a professor in Baghdad University.

As Iraq's fragile security gains grow more

sustainable, provincial elections become essential for integrating important

social groups into the political process. An important change will be towards

much stronger representation for Iraq's Sunni who did not participate the 2005

elections actively but remains a huge influence in the central and western

provinces of Iraq.

NATIONAL REFERENDUM ON

SOFA IN JULY

According to the SOFA recently signed by Washington

and Baghdad, all U.S. combat troops must pull out of Iraqi cities by the end of

June and leave the country entirely by the end of 2011.

The security pact has provoked mixed reactions across

the country. The national division over the pact is very clear. People express

everything from enthusiasm to cynicism about the pact.

Some people are happy for that a timetable has been

set for the departure of U.S. troops. Some call for an immediate withdraw of all

U.S. troops from Iraq. Some others do not trust the deal between the U.S. and

the current Iraqi government although Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki promised

that no secret terms in security pact with U.S.

Salam al-Shamaa, an Iraqi journalist who lives in

exile in Bahrain said, "I have no doubt that any political process under

domination of occupying forces would not achieve the interests of Iraqis and the

results would serve only the occupiers and their agents."

If the agreement was rejected in the referendum,

Iraqi government will have to cancel it or renegotiate it with the U.S.

"The national referendum may turn to a turning point

in the political process in Iraq, because if the Iraqi people reject the pact,

the U.S. will certainly do its endeavor to protect its interests in Iraq. It may

intervene the conflict among the Iraqi factions to redirect the political

process in a way that would serve its goals," said Professor Shiek.

NATIONWIDE ELECTIONS IN

DECEMBER

The nationwide elections are widely seen as a major

step in forging power-sharing agreements in central governing bodies among

Iraq's religious and ethnic communities and are key to lasting peace and

reconstruction of the country. The nationwide parliamentary elections will, for

the first time in three years, offer Iraqis a chance to choose leaders who they

believe represent their interests.

"The elections in December are expected to have the

major impact on Iraq's future at least in the coming four years, because there

would be a new parliament and a new government." said Professor Shiek.

"It is expected that the secular parties would try to

come back to lead the political process in the country as the religious parties

began to lost popularity among Iraqis after they failed in leading the country

during the past years," he added.

Given lawful and fair elections, there would be

substantial changes in the political map in Iraq," said Dr. Nadeem al-Jaberi, a

lawmaker and political advisor for the Fadhielah (or Virtue) Party, a Shiite

party which breaks up from the umbrella body of United Iraqi Alliance, a major

Shiite political bloc.

"But if there are violations and irregularities in

the coming elections, the results will be catastrophic on democracy in Iraq. The

Iraqis wouldn't believe ballot boxes any more," he warned.

The three votes in the year will re-balance political

powers from local level to central level and make 2009 a crucial year during the

interim period in Iraq. The year will tell whether Iraqis could grasp the chance

to end violence and create a lasting peace. If things go well, Iraq could be on

its way to ethnic reconciliation, national integrity and reconstruction of the

country.