Showing posts with label recovery. Show all posts
Showing posts with label recovery. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Fire and finances: The road to a global economic recovery

Special Report:Global Financial Crisis



By Lucy-Claire Saunders

NEW YORK, April 17 (Xinhua) -- "Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without Hell," U.S. astronaut and business executive Frank Borman once quipped, and indeed, reeling from the financial crisis, countries that subscribe to capitalism have been grappling with that duality.

Governments around the world have been forced to invest billions of taxpayer money in global and national financial institutions or suffer the consequences and watch them go belly-up.

Discussing in part this capitalistic conundrum, global leaders and U.S. financial players gathered on Friday at the second annual Georgetown Global Conference to discuss the rocky road to economic recovery in the Hyatt Hotel of Manhattan, where flags still flutter in the wind bragging, "Financial capital of the world."

After years of intense deregulation of the U.S. financial market, the White House is likely to unveil a series of new regulatory measures in order to stabilize its own economy and, in turn, the world's, Representative of New York's Seventh Congressional District, Joseph Crowley, told an audience of 200 under the crystal chandeliers of the Empire Ballroom.

With the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the failure of Wall Street, the U.S. set off a chain reaction of recessions around the world. From America to Asia, globalization has eased the transmission of the economic crisis, experts say, creating a greater role for transnational governance.

At the day-long Georgetown forum, Mary Callahan Erdoes, chairman and chief executive officer of Global Wealth Management for J.P. Morgan, said she saw the beginning of a recovery, although "the way people manage their money has fundamentally changed."

Erdoes cautioned using the word "forever" because "everyone has a lapse of memory and we will forget about (the financial crisis) in 10 years. Remember that," she said, as the audience giggled nervously.

Just that morning, J.P. Morgan announced a first-quarter profit of 2.1 billion U.S. dollars -- after an injection of 25 billion dollars in taxpayer money.

But just a few blocks away from the Hyatt Hotel, the United Nations has been busy trying to make sure that no one ever does forget the anxiety caused by the shadowy world of finance.

Positioning itself at the center of a new global economic architecture, the UN General Assembly (GA) is preparing for a summit meeting to address the economic crisis and its impact on development, slated for June 1-3 at the UN Headquarters in New York.

President Miguel d'Escoto Brockmann of the GA told reporters earlier this week that the United Nations will float a number of ideas including replacing the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency with some form of Special Drawing Rights -- an idea also proposed by the head of China's central bank, Zhou Xiaochuan.

Heavily influenced by former World Bank president, Joseph Stiglitz, the GA has also suggested replacing the G20 with a United Nations Global Economic Coordination Council, an elected and representative platform for leadership on social, environmental and economic problems.

One underlying question seems to haunt the global debate on economic reform: Is the world-wide financial crisis a signal that stronger regulations are needed to guide institutions from the 1940s into the new millennium or should those institutions be altogether replaced?

Simply recycling old institutions and promoting the economic hierarchy that has plagued the last century won't suffice in the new global financial architecture, GA President Brockmann has said.

Nevertheless, in London, the G20 announced it would "substantially increase" funding to the International Monetary Fund(IMF), supporting a central financing institution where the European Union has 32 percent of the voting power and the U.S. has approximately 17 percent of the voting power, giving it much sought-after veto power.

China, on the other hand, with the third largest economy in the world, has 3.7 percent of the voting power, which is less voting clout than Belgium. Without greater influence in the IMF, China has been relying on more of a bilateral role with developing countries, and has positioned itself to become "the dominant power in Africa," Mathew Bishop, chief business writer and American business editor for The Economist, said at the Georgetown forum.

The danger for the United States, Bishop added, was to turn inward and forget its role as a leader in development and in emerging markets. "We see what China is doing in Africa and all over the world," Rep. Crowley also stressed. "We are falling behind and we need to do more to reengage. We'll do it but I'm not sure how."

JPMorgan China chief sees fragile recovery

Special Report:Global Financial Crisis



by Ming Jinwei


BEIJING, April 21 (Xinhua) -- The latest earnings
reports of several large U.S. banking groups lend evidence to a recovery in the
global financial industry, said a senior official of U.S. banking giant JPMorgan
Chase Co.

Fang Fang, JPMorgan's China managing director and
chief executive officer, said in a recent interview with Xinhua that the
recovery was largely fragile as the financial crisis was spreading to consumer
related business in the United States.

"Generally speaking, we have witnessed some early
signs of a recovery in the financial and investment markets, but the recovery is
still fragile," he said.

JPMorgan announced last week that it earned 2.14
billion U.S. dollars for the January-March period with record revenue of
26.9billion dollars.

Fang attributed JPMorgan's solid first quarter
results to increased market activity as investors' confidence has been boosted
by a series of measures taken by the U.S. government to tackle the financial
crisis, including injecting several hundred billion dollars of funds into large
banks and other financial institutions.

He noted that JPMorgan also suffered considerable
losses at its credit card division as a rising unemployment rate and the
deteriorating economy had hampered consumers in the United States.

JPMorgan's card division recorded a loss of 547
million dollars in the first quarter, compared with a profit of 609 million
dollars the same period a year earlier.

Fang said JPMorgan's card business witnessed less
fees and rising defaults as hard hit U.S. consumers reduced the use of credit
card and failed to pay their credit card loans.

Anticipating increasing defaults on consumer related
loans, JPMorgan has increased its credit defaults provision by 4.2 billion
dollars in the first quarter to 28 billion dollars.

Besides JPMorgan, several other U.S. banking giants
also reported solid first quarter results.

Wells Fargo said earlier this month it expected to
earn 3 billion dollars in the first quarter, a record number for the company,
while Goldman Sachs announced it made a net income of 1.66 billion dollars in
the same period.

Given the fact that the financial industry usually
starts to recover six months earlier than the broader economy, Fang believed the
U.S. economy might hit the bottom and start to grow again in the second half of
this year or the first half of next year.

Citing the fact that the share prices of some Chinese
real estate companies rose some 60 percent last month in overseas stock markets,
Fang said international investors have shown more confidence in the Chinese
economy when the financial recovery was emerging.

On the lessons to be drawn from the current financial
crisis, Fang said the United States should strengthen financial regulation and
take new measures such as setting up different federal government agencies to
regulate different financial products, instead of different financial
institutions.

He also stressed the need of increasing capital
adequacy ratio for financial institutions, reducing the role of rating agencies
in financial dealings and implementing anti-cyclical measures to cushion the
devastating impact of the crisis on the whole financial system.