Special Report:Global Financial Crisis
BEIJING, March 9 (Chinese media) -- A China-driven recovery
of world economy is "unrealistic", economists said amid hope, after the world's
attention was drawn to China's annual parliament session, that the country's
stimulus plan would help the whole world out of the recession.
Global stock markets reacted with big fluctuations to
anticipation and disappointment to China's stimulus measures last week when
Premier Wen Jiabao unveiled a massive investment plan, including a record-high
950 billion yuan (139 billion U.S. dollars) budgeted deficit, to boost public
spending.
The country also announced a 4-trillion-yuan (585.5
billion U.S. dollars) stimulus package in November.
The global stock jumps and plunges put the "China
factor" into the spotlight, with questions on how much China could and should do
to drive impetus into world economy for a global recovery from the financial
crisis.
Economists said they believe China would be able to
keep its growth at about 8 percent this year, a growth rate long believed to be
minimum to create enough jobs and maintain social stability.
However, they said it is wild wish to count on the
country alone to fuel the global recovery, as China's economy accounted for only
five percent of the world's total.
To pin hope of the global recovery only on China is
similar to charging a colt with an overwhelmingly big carriage and hoping it to
drag the cart along, they said.
Beijing-based economist Wang Xiaoguang warned that
actually China's influence is very "limited."
He said China's stimulus package might help store up
some investors' confidence in world economy, but "China alone could not revive
the world."
"Falls and rises in stock markets are sometimes
related to short-term factors, and in some cases rises could even be a result of
market rumors," said Jia Kang, president of the Institute of Fiscal Science
under the Ministry of Finance.
"Such fluctuations cannot reflect, not to say change,
the basic structure of the world economy," he said.
China's gross domestic product (GDP) reached more
than 30 trillion yuan (4.4 trillion U.S. dollars) last year to account for about
5 percent of the world's total, according to Jia, also a member of the 11th
National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference
(CPPCC).
He pointed out the figure is far lower than the
proportion of the European Union, and the United States, the economy of which
accounts a quarter of the world's total.
"It's utterly explicit if you want to tell who can
take the lead," he said. "There is too much exaggeration in saying that China
can fuel the global economy and rescue the world."
But we can be certain that China's growth is a
positive factor in the global economy, he said, and the country can also
contribute more to an increment in the world economy this year, as many others
would add little, or even zero.
Premier Wen said last week China aimed to expand the
economy by8 percent this year. The growth could be a relief to the world against
a forecast, by the World Bank on Monday, of a possible first decline in the
world economy since World War II.
The report also said the world trade is to record its
largest decline in 80 years this year, with the sharpest losses in East Asia.
Jia said overseas media reports used to stoke either
"China threat" or "China collapse" sentiment in the past. "The situation is
improving and they are more objective now, but there is still misunderstanding
from time to time."
Actually, China is facing "unprecedented difficulties
and challenges" this year, as stated by Premier Wen in his government report
delivered to the National People's Congress, Jia said.
"China should first see after its own affairs this
year," he said, adding the biggest contribution China can make in the crisis is
to run its own affairs well, echoing the same statement of top leaders last
year.
Hao Ruyu, deputy head of the Capital University of
Economics and Business, told Chinese media that China's measures to boost the economy
and a possible recovery in the country are apparently "good news" for the world
economy.
"It's solid truth that some of the economic
indicators are pointing to positive signs, after the country made bold moves to
stimulate the economy since last October," said Hao, also an NPC deputy.
He referred to the 4-trillion-yuan stimulus plan, a
plan to expand rural consumption of home appliances, and support plans for10 key
industries.
Statistics showed that China's manufacturing activity
contracted for a fifth straight month in February, but the depth of decline
narrowed, and new loans last month continued to grow at a fast pace, suggesting
more robust economic activities in the country.
However, Hao agreed with Jia and said it's
"unrealistic" to count on China alone to drive the global economy, saying
China's 5-percent weight in the global economy is limited in impact and scope.
Zheng Xinli, deputy head of the Central Policy
Research Office, the top think tank of the Communist Party of China, expressed
more optimism in China's role in a global recovery.
"It is a demonstration of China's continuous growth
over the past years and its increasing contribution to the world economy for
overseas investors and media to look to China for hopes of recovery," he told
Chinese media.
China's contribution to the world economy is not very
big in terms of gross product, but the country is already making a significant
contribution to the increment in the world's total gross product, he explained.
"China's boost on domestic demand might lead to more
imports from other countries, so it makes sense for the world to look to the
country," said Zheng, also a member of the 11th CPPCC National Committee.
The industrialization and urbanization of developing countries like China, coupled with capital and technologies from developed economies, would create huge demand that could help lead the global economy out of the recession, he added.
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